National intangible capital, NIC, and recovery.

ELSS: Three main drivers of GDP growth: MTFP, DTFP and NIC

MTFP = Global markets and global total factor productivity, TFP = Global trade and international networking.
DTFP = Domestic markets and domestic linked TFP = Domestic - private, public and third sector - consumption and lokal networking.
NIC = Human-, market-, process- and renewal- capital = People, business attractivity, infra and innovativeness.

GDP = effect of [MTFP + DTFP + NIC]

Applying this on growth accounting we get:
  • GDP growth = MTFP growth + DTFP growth + NIC growth
  • g(GDP) = g(MTFP) + g(DTFP) + g(NIC)

ELSS: NIC GDP growth impact

Global and domestic market effects on growth fluctuate, but - interestingly so - our finding is, that NIC always as a positive growth impact on GDP.

E.g. Even if MTFP and/or DTFP growth can turn negative, NIC growth impact always remains positive.
Here example for Norway:

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This has one important lesson and implication: Growth impact of NIC on GDP always helps recovery and/or sustains positive GDP growth.

ELSS: GDP growth and recovery / example Denmark 2011

In 2007, just before the financial crisis, when both global and domestic market growth become 0 % for Denmark NIC yet enabled a 1.7 % GDP growth that year.

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More remarkably: In 2010 and 2011 only NIC growth impact on GDP enabled fast recovery for Denmark.

Positive - always positive - growth impacts of NIC have far reaching consequences for policy makers - and researchers.

One way to put this would simply be to say: Investments in national intangible capital always give a positive return on that investment.

ELSS: GDP growth and recovery / example Ireland 2011



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