The Nordic Frugal Innovation Society / InnoFrugal 2016
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innoFrugal 2016: Official website
innoFrugal 2015: InnoFrugal 2015 report
NIC on the week: Next update 12:00 CET 19/04/2016.
Next: UK Brexit recap.
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.
Brexit will cost UK 6% of GDP by 2030
And maybe even more ...
Triggering stories:
- UK economy 'could be 6% smaller' after EU exit, warns Treasury / Here
- George Osborne defends Treasury's gloomy EU exit forecast / Here
- HM Treasury analysis: The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives / PDF Here
- ... and: Redwood: Treasury 2030 forecast 'completely worthless' / Video Here
- UPDATE 20.04.2016: Concern over Brexit's impact on science / Here
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Don't forget NIC Trade spillovers
Trade is not only exchange of goods, exchange of services as goods. All trade is also exchange of values and happens always both ways: When importing or exporting both parties always benefit values as spillovers.
To get a crude measure for this positive spillover strenghtening NIC we calcualte a NIC trade value = Weighted average of export/import trade partners NIC * share of trade. I.e. when you trade you benefit your trade partners values (NIC).
Comparing NIC trade values for export and import it turns out that in general NIC export value is some 5-10 % higher than NIC import value. This is a reflection of a simple fact: We import and add value and then we export. This is a basic mechanism. More intresting, however, is the question: Do we trade with high or low NIC partners? Trading with high NIC partners yield higher positive spillover effects.
Looking at the picture for UK: Spillovers are significant for UK as UK NIC trade value is well above average (and well above USA and Germany for both export and import)
Not focusing on index values, but looking at the same picture for UK but measuring NIC trade value using partners NIC impacts as the base don't radically change the picture: UK's trading partners grant UK significant NIC spillovers
To further evaluate value of NIC spillovers we compare NIC trade value to country own NIC simply by calculating NIC trade value / country NIC percentage (%) ratio. The higher this ratio is, the higher the benefits and the importance for the country: For UK importance is evident
This once more rises the question: How important is EU for UK and UK's national intangible capital, NIC, when EU is UK's biggest trading partner?
Don't forget the NIC Tipping point projections
We define a NIC Tipping point as a point on a time line (future) where NIC impacts in GDP formation and growth ceases to grow, i.e. NIC impact stagnates on a certain level.
In order to estimate the existance of a tipping point (in near or far future) we calculate a NIC TP value for each driver (indicator) = annual projected increment on impact in GDP. This is performed by analysing near past and far past behavior of the driver (i.e. we perform trend analysis of drivers impact). As in SWOT analysis we acknowledge intrinsic, NIC trade value and global development related impact factors for each driver.
Finally we add together (aggregate) the net cumulating effect(s) of all drivers and come to a NIC Tipping point projection for each country. Here NIC Tipping point base projection for UK 2014:
In the base projection the Tipping point is beyond 2020, not much, but beyond. However, if a possible Brexit would have a slight negative impact on NIC trade values and spillovers the situation changes. Estimating a (moderate) 1 % negative shock would drag the NIC Tipping point for UK to the end of this decade, in the vicinity of no later than 2019 +/-.
NIC Tipping point if Brexit has a (1 %) negative impact on NIC trade values and spillovers
The difference in NIC impact growth estimates: 1.06% - 0.61% = 0.45% each year! By 2030 this difference will be (an other?) 6.3%.
Summary:
- UK's trade strucure gives UK significant NIC spillovers (when compared to other countries) which in part explain why UK perform well when it comes to NIC impacts. However, this NIC (spillover) is "trade/co-operation dependent" and mostly linked to EU.
- Base projection for NIC Tipping point is slightly beyond 2020 +. Tipping point will most likely be caused by weak output performance drivers, primary within market and process capital, renewal capital not to forget. Brexit may drag NIC Tipping point for UK nearer the end of this decade, 2019 +/-.
- In every scenario in the report by HM Treasury estimations of total negative impacts of a possible UK Brexit are under estimated! Annual negative impact will be significantly higher when lost positive NIC impacts on GDP are added in full.
NIC on the week: Next update 12:00 CET 20/04/2016.
Storyline pending. Suggest a storyline?
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.
Projections of Future Education
Based on the webpage initiated by Max Roser .
Triggering stories:
- Quartz’s Chart of the Year™ for 2015
- The scientists with reasons to be cheerful
- Bill Gates: Global inequality is falling faster than ever
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You can also open Our World in Data in separate window.
Summary:
- What you do with your human capital really matters.
NIC on the week: Next update 12:00 CET 21/04/2016.
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.
NIC 2016 Country reports
Invitation to participate
Intangible Capital is nowadays the main contributor of GDP and economic growth in all the developed countries. However, it seems that financial reporting is still from the industrial era and lack of comprehensive analyses of intangibles is evident.
We invite you to participate in prototyping a new service of NIC Country Reports.
Today we also celebrate Queen Elizabeth's 90 years birthday ... dedicating Her 90 seconds:
Courtesy of Finnish YLE News
Notice Finnish perspective: Bold and big man with grand glasses in several fotages is Finlands former president Urho Kekkonen.
Summary:
- Long live The Queen !!!
NIC on the week: Next update 12:00 CET 22/04/2016.
Next: Israel snapshots.
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.
Israel NIC 2014
Summary:
- Region leader with weaknesses in Process and Renewal capital already affecting potentials for future NIC impact growth. Strong positive progess 2001 - 2009/11, but evident slowdown 2009/11 - 2014 in NIC performance.
NIC on the week: Next update 12:00 CET 25/04/2016.
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.