NIC on the week: Next update 12:00 CET 29/03/2016.
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.
National intangible capital NIC is active in a broad context. Main components in this context are financial, cultural, social and environmental capital:
From this point of view and in this context Turkey is unstable:
and this makes NIC Tipping point analysis difficult as forecasting and trend analysis would need a more stable social and cultural situation. Under pressure here are social and cultural capital and finally also environmental and financial. This uncertainty not only affect analysis: Uncertainty, insecure and unpredictable socio-political development(s) hamper positive NIC growth in Turkey - and challenge basic EU values.
We define a NIC Tipping point as a point on a time line (future) where NIC impacts in GDP per employed ceases to grow, i.e. NIC impact in labor productivity stagnates on a certain level.
In order to estimate the existance of a tipping point (in near or far future) we calculate a NIC TP value for each driver (indicator) = annual projected increment on impact in GDP. This is performed by analysing near past and far past behavior of the driver (i.e. we perform trend analysis of drivers impact). As in SWOT analysis we acknowledge intrinsic, NIC trade values and global development related impact factors for each driver.
Schematically a positive TP value granting growth looks like this:
As you notice the projection is then calculated using best performer as a target / optimal value for impact (strenghtend by 10 %). All values are calcualted on a year to year basis starting 2001. Schematically a negative TP value causing negative growth (declining impacts) looks like this:
Finally we add together (aggregate) the net cumulating effect(s) of all drivers and come to a NIC Tipping point projection for each country.
Turkey: Present socio-political situation unchanged or worsens
Turkey: Present socio-political situation lighten up and tensions get weaker
Strenghts: Strenghts upholding growth are at risk:
Weaknesses: Human and process capital is deteriorating worryingly:
NIC on the week: Next update 12:00 CET 30/03/2016.
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.
NIC on the week: Next update 12:00 CET 31/03/2016.
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.
Triggering story:
"The remarkable growth in patent applications at the EPO proves that Europe continues to be a hub for innovators from all over the world, and an attractive technology market," said EPO President Benoît Battistelli.
Well, "a hub", yes, but compare these figures to figures for US growth (16.4%) and China (22.0%):
There were marked differences in patenting activity among European countries in 2015: Italy reversed the negative trend of the past four years (with +9.0% more applications in 2015 from Italian companies than in 2014), as did Spain (+3.8% over 2014). Meanwhile, Belgium (+5.9% over 2014), the UK (+5.7%), the Netherlands (+3.3%) and Switzerland (+2.6%) all continued their growth. Other countries including France (+1.6%), Austria (+1.4%) and Sweden (-0.9%) remained more or less at the level of the previous year, while applications from Germany dropped again (-3.2%), and some Nordic states such as Finland (-8.3%) and Denmark (-2.7%) also had fewer applications.
Human and process capital (NHC and NPC) perform well, market capital (NMC) is recovering rapidly from the financial crisis, but renewal (innovation) capital (NRC) has de facto (major) problems.
Considering EU28 NIC developmental stage this is worrying: Renewal capital should be a priority!
Focus need to be clearly shifted to renewal cpital and balanced with process and human capital.
This is a developing story: Next update 12:00 CET 01/04/2016.
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.
We define a NIC Tipping point as a point on a time line (future) where NIC impacts in GDP per employed ceases to grow, i.e. NIC impact in labor productivity stagnates on a certain level.
In order to estimate the existence of a tipping point (in near or far future) we calculate a NIC TP value for each driver (indicator) = annual projected increment on impact in GDP. This is performed by analysing near past and far past behavior of the driver (i.e. we perform trend analysis of drivers impact). As in SWOT analysis we acknowledge intrinsic, NIC trade values and global development related impact factors for each driver.
Schematically a positive TP value granting growth looks like this:
As you notice the projection is then calculated using best performer as a target / optimal value for impact (strenghtend by 10 %). All values are calcualted on a year to year basis starting 2001. Schematically a negative TP value causing negative growth (declining impacts) looks like this:
Finally we add together (aggregate) the net cumulating effect(s) of all drivers and come to a NIC Tipping point projection for each country or region.
EU28: Base projection 2014
Impacts of NIC on labor productivity (as GDP/employed) will continue growing, but growth rate will decrease. From being 4.65% during 2001 - 2014 it will drop to 1.65% 2014 - 2020. This is a rather low projected growth rate considering NIC present impact share in GDP formation (51.98%). Compare this to i.e. USA and Sweden with NIC impact shares in GDP formation well above 70% and increasing this with more than 2.5% each year!
However: As NIC TP values are calculated for all drivers we can pin point "strenghts and weaknesses" behind EU28 projected development:
Drivers boosting the economy:
Good and bad news:
Drivers losing their boosting impact:
This is a developing story: Next update 12:00 CET 04/04/2016.
Next week: We continue analysing EU28 renewal capital and enlarge (downsize) EU analysis to the EURO zone: "From EU28 and EURO to EU". We also focus on a basic question: How to aggregate EU NIC?
Stay tuned!
Any questions? Mail a NIC team member or mail your question to: nic research.
NOTE:
Till official release and publication of NIC 2016 Report in April (2016) we elaborate only NIC 2001-2013/14 public data based analysis and results, i.e. data available to all. Customers find latest NIC 2016 data and analysis results on login area. However: Elaborations and results presented here are tried to be in line with results you will find in the NIC 2016 Report and database.